当局者迷 旁观者清

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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #222222; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">本周，沪指向下击穿以</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #222222; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">3300</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #222222; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">点为底边的“底部”区间，跌破</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #222222; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">3100</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #222222; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">点，并濒临</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #222222; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">3000</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #222222; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">点整数关口。沪指周</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #222222; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">K</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #222222; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">线暴跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #222222; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">11.4</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #222222; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">％，并创</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #222222; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">11</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #222222; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">年来沪市最大周跌幅，深圳成指周跌幅为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #222222; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">15.28</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #222222; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">％，地产指数周跌幅为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #222222; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">21.54</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #222222; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">％。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><?XML:NAMESPACE PREFIX = O /><O:P></O:P></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"> <SPAN style="COLOR: #222222"><O:P></O:P></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #222222; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">中石油向下击穿以发行价</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #222222; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">16.7</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #222222; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">元为底边的、构筑了近三周的“底部”区域，且在“破发”后瞬间直线“跳水”到</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #222222; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">16.00</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #222222; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">元，收盘</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #222222; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">16.02</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #222222; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">元。地产、金融、火电、石化、钢铁、航空等大盘篮筹股纷纷于本周创出本轮跌势新低。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><O:P></O:P></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"> <SPAN style="COLOR: #222222"><O:P></O:P></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #222222; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">这一切表明，市场的新一轮跌势开始并有加速下跌迹象。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><O:P></O:P></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"> <SPAN style="COLOR: #222222"><O:P></O:P></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #222222; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">每当市场暴跌时，大多数</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #222222; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">朋友的回答是因为相信了牛市分析师的看法，而这些看法基本上也很雷同且主观色彩浓厚：“牛市格局未变”、“最后一跌”、“黎明前的黑暗”、“下跌是空头陷阱”、“估值已经合理”、“已经具备投资价值”、“主动买套以免踏空”、“底部已经来临”、“应该对中国经济和中国股市充满信心”，等等。正是因为这些“唱多”分析，才使自己盼望涨势出现，从而贻误了止损战机。尽管大盘“跌跌不休”，但这类“唱多”文章天天都有，这也印证了那句股谚：“多头不死，熊市不止”。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><O:P></O:P></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"> <SPAN style="COLOR: #222222"><O:P></O:P></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #222222; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">针对这种情况，笔者也早在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #222222; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #222222; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #222222; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #222222; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">日撰文“眼见为实，大势在跌”指出：“熊市中的唱多文章很受欢迎，因为这类文章让那些套牢而又不肯认错的投资者看到了‘希望’，受伤的心灵得到了暂时的安慰，但同时也加深了他们的套牢程度，贻误了战机，延缓了投资失败的感觉。”</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><O:P></O:P></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"> <SPAN style="COLOR: #222222"><O:P></O:P></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #222222; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">本周公布的一些经济数据和准备金率的再次上调，让人清晰地感受到了宏观经济面拐点的来临和企业利润下滑的趋势，而在此基础上的投资者预期，使大盘跌势延续的概率加大。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><O:P></O:P></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"> <SPAN style="COLOR: #222222"><O:P></O:P></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #222222; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">怎么办呢？我们的意见仍然是，不要用盼涨的心态无视眼前的跌势，而要用自己的眼睛真真实实地“看”行情，只要大盘没有彻底走出底部，就不要过早介入。“用眼看”是为了客观，而“盼”常常会带上主观的色彩和侥幸的心理。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><O:P></O:P></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"> <SPAN style="COLOR: #222222"><O:P></O:P></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #222222; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">重复一遍我们在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #222222; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #222222; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #222222; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #222222; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">日提出的操作策略：擦亮眼镜，眼见为实；大势在跌，逢高出货；继续空仓，现金为王；远离市场，等待机会。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><O:P></O:P></SPAN></P></SPAN>