静观封基风险博弈，耐心等待建仓机会

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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 18pt; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">静观封基风险博弈，耐心等待建仓机会</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 18pt; COLOR: red"><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face=Calibri><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">  </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">封闭式基金分红放量逆势炒作行情已经接近尾声，多数大比例分红基金在行情除权之日放出巨量，伴随巨量的是远超大盘的跌幅。虽然分红之后封闭式基金浮动折价率有所扩大，但含权概念丧失和过渡炒作带来的获利卖盘超过投资买盘意愿，大多理性买盘正在等待封闭式基金盘整洗清获利。除权之后产生了多头真空，同期空头还是不断的抛出手中的筹码兑现，分红行情正好收官于除权之日。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face=Calibri><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">  </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">封闭式基金走势与大盘联系甚大，目前大盘依然处于下跌通道中，虽说终于在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face=Calibri>K</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">线上有看得出来的反弹产生，但在没有利好政策支持的情况下大盘走势依然偏弱，真正的大底遥遥无期。面对可以用“非常糟糕”来形容的外部环境，封闭式基金即使除权后浮动折价率有所扩大<SPAN style="COLOR: red">（目前浮动折价率最大的“基金同盛”为</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: red"><FONT face=Calibri>29.56%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">）</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">，但已不具备题材概念炒作的要素</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face=Calibri>----</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">良好的外部环境。从悲观的角度：据上轮熊市</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face=Calibri>50%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">折价率的数据分析，大盘封闭式基金</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face=Calibri>20%~30%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">的浮动折价率，根本不足以作为保护伞，炒做更是无从谈起。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face=Calibri>   </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">分红之后封基</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face=Calibri>1000</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">亿超级含权概念已不在，无论是大分红小分红的封基都回到同一起跑线，此时投资者将从新审核封基。到底哪只封基好哪只封基坏短期内谁也说不清，除非审核的人是带着有色眼睛。分红之后数日多只封基依然保持高换手率：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face=Calibri>”</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">基金通乾、基金同盛、基金同益、基金裕阳</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face=Calibri>.” </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">这应该是市场正在博弈的一个表现，而此场博弈到底是多空那方胜利，还很难说。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face=Calibri>   </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">风险博弈的时候基民的心态更是难以琢磨，有时候真的是一天一小变，三天一大变。另外封闭式基金长期放量本来就不正常，牛市封闭式基金的放量都不能持久，更不用说当前状态下的封闭式基金。放量持续时间都不久，还有放量之后一般会有一个不跌的过程。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face=Calibri>   </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">谈到建仓小</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face=Calibri>T</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">给出了个人的几个经验：（一）封基折价率博弈出平台保持稳定之后才可购买。（二）投机气氛消散，封基进入稳定横盘期（三）大盘走势趋好或是有实质利好出台。以上三条延伸向下细化到实例使用缺一不可。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left" align=left><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #c00000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">短期注意风险：同盛、兴和、兴华、银丰、裕隆、开元。</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #c00000"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left" align=left><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #c00000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">短期超短机会：鸿阳。</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #c00000"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face=Calibri>   </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">我想现在分红再投真的不是时候，退出来部分资金也许能让投资者看清股市与封闭式基金的真实面貌，毕竟当局者迷、旁观者清。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">小</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; COLOR: red"><FONT face=Calibri>T<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; COLOR: red"><FONT face=Calibri>2008</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">年</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; COLOR: red"><FONT face=Calibri>4</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; COLOR: red"><FONT face=Calibri>16</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri">日</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; COLOR: red"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P></DIV>