<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">长江私募内参（</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">4</FONT></SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">3</FONT></SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">日午间版）</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></B></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">岳阳纸业（</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: red; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">600963</FONT></SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">）：</SPAN></B><FONT color=#000000><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">面对新闻纸价格持续低迷、原料和能源价格持续上涨，新闻纸盈利能力持续下降的市场环境，公司积极调整产品结构，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">07</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">4</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月就停止了新闻纸的生产和销售，加大毛利率较高的颜料整饰胶版纸、轻涂纸和淋膜原纸等一些产品的生产。随着文化纸价格的上涨，公司颜料整饰胶版纸和轻涂纸开始提价，毛利率水平上升。由于行业景气，可长期关注！</SPAN></FONT></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">招商轮船（</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: red; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">601872</FONT></SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">）</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: red; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">:</FONT></SPAN></B><FONT color=#000000><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">预计公司</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">08</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年第一季度净利润同比增长</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">100%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">以上。业绩增长主要原因：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">、本公司油轮船队和散货船队均抓住市场机遇，加上一艘完成双壳改造的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">VLCC</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">油轮（凯勇轮）投产，实现的运费率水平大幅提升；</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">、虽然燃油成本大幅上升，但本公司各项成本费用控制继续保持良好；</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">3</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">、一艘</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">AFRAMAX</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">单壳油轮出售收入入账，增加营业外收入</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">5993</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">万元。拟新增的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">14</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">艘油轮中，公司在完成对金程投资有限公司的收购后，已获得</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">3</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">艘新油轮的建造合同，将于</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">07</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年和</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">09</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年交船；另外，公司已通过下属公司订造</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">艘阿芙拉型油轮，将于</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">08</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年上半年交船。剩余的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">9</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">艘油轮将采用定造新船或购买二手油轮等方式来完成油轮船队扩建计划。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">艘液化天然气运输专用船已开始建造，预计分别于</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">07</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">09</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年交船。可长期关注！</SPAN></FONT></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">中国远洋</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: red; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">(601919)</FONT></SPAN></B><FONT color=#000000><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">是中国远洋运输</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">(</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">集团</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">)</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">总公司</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">(</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">全球第二大综合性航运公司</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">)</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">的上市旗舰和资本平台</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">是一家集干散货航运</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">集装箱航运</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">物流</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">码头和集装箱租赁为一体的综合性航运公司。公司业绩预增公告显示</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">,2007</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年度净利润将超过</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">180</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">按增发完成后总股本计算</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">每股收益将超过</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.76</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">.</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">根据香港联交所交易网站显示</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">摩根士丹利</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">瑞银</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">,JP</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">摩根等多家机构最近大幅增持公司</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">H</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">股。但是国际燃油价格上涨对该行业造成成本上升，利润下降，运输价格波动和资产注入的时间也存在不确定性。谨慎关注</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">.</FONT></SPAN></FONT></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">拓日新能</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: red; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">(002218):</FONT></SPAN></B><FONT color=#000000><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">目前拥有齐全的产品线，集非晶硅、单晶硅、多晶硅太阳能电池芯片、太阳能电池组件、太阳能电池应用产品的生产销售为一体。该公司也是国内惟一一家可同时生产非晶硅、单晶硅、多晶硅三种太阳能电池的专业厂家。在国际上也只有西门子、夏普、德国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">RWE</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">等几个厂家能够同时生产三种太阳能电池。在世界范围内的太阳能业务结构中，非晶硅和晶体硅的比例为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">9</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，随着多晶硅的涨价，晶体硅的毛利率逐步下降，原料还很难充足供应。但拓日新能的非晶硅和晶体硅的比例是</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">3</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，避开竞争激烈、毛利不高的多晶硅，公司的毛利保持较高水平。据长江私募了解，多晶硅价格在国家国内市场还将持续走高，拓日新能在非晶硅太阳能电池领域，从玻璃原片开始，直到太阳能灯具、手机充电器等近百种民用化产品；在晶体硅太阳能电池领域，从原始硅片开始，直到大型光伏电站系统，工序之多、产业链之长为国内之最。完整齐备的产业链使公司可以迅速有效地向市场提供所需的产品，产品成本得以降低，质量也可以得到有效控制由于国家的新能源的政策扶持加之国际油价的居高不下，拓日新能可长期关注</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">.</FONT></SPAN></FONT></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">津滨发展（</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: red; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">000897</FONT></SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">）</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: red; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">:</FONT></SPAN></B><FONT color=#000000><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">公司是滨海新区的能源龙头，目前的供热市场范围涵盖整个天津开发区</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">33</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">平方公里，是开发区唯一热源供应企业，在区位市场及产品竞争等方面具有明显的优势。近两年来国家非常重视发展节能产业，在今年节能减排又再次成为政府的重点工作，而公司的生产方式是热电联产，热电联产方式是国家鼓励扶持的低耗、高效、少污染的方式，此方式将有助于推动公司在节能降耗、减少污染等相关国家指标方面率先达标，享受相关的国家优惠政策</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">.</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">可重点关注。</SPAN></FONT></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">行情综述及热点前瞻：</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></B></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><FONT color=#000000><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">行情可能会在欢呼声中结束，也可能在绝望中产生。昨日超级蓝筹股昨群起飙升显露机构抄底意图</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">, ETF50(</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">交易型开放式指数基金</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">)</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">基金连续放量，有超级主力在底部换手。此外，在中国股市历史上，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">QFII</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">曾于</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2001</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年和</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2004</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年有两次成功抄底的经验。所以“外资和游资可能再一次抄到了散户甚至基金的底外资大举增仓金融股，其中高成长的中小银行股和保险股成为外资重点增仓的对象，今天早盘钢铁外及中字号个股领涨，同时大象乱舞，一些中小盘绩优超跌个股均表现强势，资金抄底意图明显，因主力需在底部还手，下午大盘还将持续剧烈震荡，长江私募认为，下午将是抄底的最好时机，节后后大盘会迎来一波久违的强势反弹！</SPAN></FONT></P>

股票缩水了太厉害了！！！